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Josef Stalin was warned time and again from a variety of sources of the German plans for invading the Soviet Union, and yet, he did NOT heed those warnings.
Although we may picture panzers when we think of the German Army in WW2, it was very much an army that relied on horses- especially in the east- for a large part of its supplies and logistics, and the horse situation on the Eastern Front has grown dire. Japan's economic situation has also grown dire and they are now looking south for new sources of raw materials.
Japan needs resources for its seemingly endless war in China, but where to look for them? And who might have a problem with it? Meanwhile in the Soviet Union, Hitler's forces have been diverted from the Moscow Road, and are on the move in the north and the south.